In the month of October, small business optimism remained suppressed as nearly a quarter of small business owners reported raising prices while also reporting lower sales over the past three months. Filling vacancies has become less of an issue for small business owners, with 34 percent reporting openings they were unable to fill, down six points and marking the lowest level since January 2021. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, released earlier this month, showed the inflation rate declined slightly to 2.4 percent year over year, however it was higher than forecasted. Core CPI, which excludes the more volatile measurements of food and energy, rose slightly more than expected by 0.3 percent from the previous month. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) monthly Small Business Optimism Index rose by 0.3 points to 91.5. September also marked the 33^rd consecutive month spent below the 50-year average of 98. The Uncertainty Index rose by another 11 points up to 103, marking the highest level ever recorded and signaling that small business owners are increasingly unsure about the future. With uncertainty continuing to rise and this month’s CPI report coming in higher than expected, it appears it will be some time before small businesses are fully recovered. The Federal Reserve’s 50 basis point interest rate cut will begin to provide some relief to small businesses in need of capital, but lending costs are still far higher than they were prior to the pandemic. For any relief that lower interest rates may provide, sales trending lower will mean small businesses will have to remain nimble as they navigate a particularly challenging economic environment.

The below October 2024 Small Business Snapshot features numbers and updates to provide more insight into the current small business economy.

MAIN STREET MEASUREMENTS:

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (INFLATION)

• The prices consumers paid for goods and services increased 0.2 percent in September as compared to August and totaled a 2.4 percent increase when measured over the last 12 months.

PRODUCER PRICE INDEX

• Wholesale prices increased 0.2 percent in September and had an increase of 1.8 percent year over year.

JOB OPENINGS

• At the end of August, businesses were unable to fill 8 million jobs, 3.1 million workers quit their jobs, and the number of layoffs and discharges changed little.

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

• 254,000 jobs were created in September, and the unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.1 percent.

LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE

• The labor force participation rate remained unchanged at 62.7 percent in September.

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS

• For the week ending October 5, 2024, the Department of Labor reported that initial unemployment claims were 258,000, an increase of 33,000 from the previous week’s level.
  
• The 4-week moving average of initial claims totaled 231,000, an increase of 6,750 from the previous week’s average.

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